How accurate are BNBCalc's estimates?

What makes an estimate more reliable

Every BNBCalc revenue figure comes from a set of comparable listings, so the quickest way to judge an estimate is to look at the set behind it. A few things make the biggest difference:

• How many comps there are, and how close. An estimate built on dozens of exact bedroom matches within 5 km (about 3 miles) rests on far more evidence than one built on ten homes spread across 16 km (about 10 miles).

• How common the home is. Two- and three-bedroom homes in an active market have plenty of matches. Homes with six or more bedrooms, unusual layouts or rare features often don't, so the estimate has less to go on.

• How much the comps look like your property. The comp search matches on location, home type and bedrooms only, so a plain condo can end up compared with houses that have pools. If your property has something most comps lack, like a waterfront lot, or lacks something they share, the estimate won't reflect that until you filter or untick comps.

• How the comps are run. A listing that blocks off much of the year can earn far less than it could, which is why BNBCalc usually works from each comp's full-year potential rather than its raw earnings.

  Related question

  • How does BNBCalc estimate revenue for a property?

Why the estimate can look high

If the estimate looks higher than you expected, there are four usual reasons:

1. It's a benchmark for a well-run listing. A new analysis opens at the 70th percentile of the comps, and after your first change it's the median of the top-earning half, which sits near the 75th percentile.
2. Each comp is valued at what it could earn if it were bookable all year, not at what it earned while its owner blocked off nights.
3. It includes the cleaning fees guests pay.
4. It's gross revenue, before the platform fee, cleaning and every other expense, which BNBCalc subtracts further down the analysis.

To see where the estimate sits in the full range, click How it's calculated under the revenue figure. It lists the 10th, 25th, 50th, 70th and 90th percentile of your comps' revenue, so if you expect to run the property more like a typical host, you can see roughly what that looks like.

How to check an estimate yourself

Before you rely on an estimate for an offer, it's worth ten minutes with the comps:

1. Scroll to the comps table and the map below it. Click a few pins to see how far away each comp is.
2. Open the comps that earn the most, using the link in the listing name, and compare their photos, size and amenities with your property. Untick any that aren't a fair match.
3. Open Filters and keep only your property type, plus any amenity that matters in the area, such as a pool or hot tub.
4. Compare each comp's Revenue (Actual) with its Revenue (Potential). A big gap means the host blocks a lot of nights, and the potential figure is doing more of the work.
5. On a US property, run AI Underwriter for a second opinion. It compares each comp's photos, layout and amenities with yours and uses the median of the closest matches.
6. Look at the wider area in BNBCalc Markets to see whether your estimate sits in line with homes of the same bedroom count.

What BNBCalc doesn't do

An estimate is a starting point for your own judgment, not a promise of income, and BNBCalc's printed reports say the same. In particular, BNBCalc:

• doesn't inspect your property or know how well it'll be furnished, priced and managed;
• doesn't check whether short-term rentals are allowed at the address, or what an HOA permits;
• doesn't forecast future demand, new competition or rate changes, because its revenue and occupancy figures come from past bookings (the growth rates in an analysis are assumptions you set);
• and doesn't replace a lender, CPA or attorney, so treat its tax and financing figures as planning estimates.

None of that makes the numbers less useful. It means they work best alongside a look at the listings themselves, a call to the city or county, and your own plan for running the place.